Problems of “Net Present Value” Part 1: Fit only for “Bond based scenarios”

I will not describe the theory of NPV, as I assume that you already are familiar with it, and if not, you can easily get. However I will make a stand on the fact that the numbers of problems it has, is legion.

The first and most obvious problem, one that can be spotted even by non Accounting & Finance professionals, is that it has only one discount rate. The NPV method does not calculate interest, but it integrates both the principal and the interest into a new calculated number, who’s nature is closer to a ratio, that to what Accountants understand as a result.

In order to understand the nature of the problem, you must realize that there are two distinct types of Interest. In a company, because of the numerous daily deposits and withdrawals, on some days of the month the Bank account’s balance is a positive number (so it’s a deposit from us to the Bank), and we collect “Interest Income” (for example at 0.50%), while on some other days the balance is a negative number (so it’s a loan from the Bank to us) and accordingly we pay “Interest Expense” (for example at 6.00%).

To begin with, in the NPV method, a calculation of the sum of the daily balance of the Bank account is not anticipated, or even possible. But the obvious main problem is that the NPV method has only one discount rate, and so in effect, the “Net Present Value” method treats two materially different situations in the same manner (in the above example: 0.50% and 6.00%).

So, we see that in a “Company based scenario” the NPV method has problems from the get-go. NPV is meaningful only in situations where there is only one cashflow that doesn’t interact with other ones. Such a situation can realistically be found only in “Bond based scenarios”.

Stick around, as we will continue to visit other problems of the “Net Present Value” method. You are guaranteed to have a good belly laugh with some of them.

Posted in Financial Analysis, Financial Analysis Method, Investment Plan Evaluation, NPV, Net Present Value, Problems of Net Present Value | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Financial Analysis: Possibly the two biggest words that you thought you knew, but in reality they practically almost didn’t exist

Suppose that you are not an Accounting & Finance professional, and you would like to learn about “Investment Plan Evaluation”. You are planning to create a new company from scratch. You have amassed lists about forecasted sales, purchases, salaries, ads, rent etc. What you need to find now, is a method to process those figures, in order to come up with the answer to the most obvious and the most useful question in such a situation, which is “Profit & Loss”.

In the 21st century, the usual starting place for such a search would be Wikipedia, which currently has over 4 million English articles. The first surprise will surely come when you find out that there is no article in Wikipedia about “Investment Evaluation” or “Investment Plan Evaluation” or “Evaluation of an Investment” or any other variation on the search words. If you open any of the articles that Wikipedia presents to you as potentially relevant, you will find that they are totally irrelevant to the task at hand.

This will probably be a first class shock to you. After all, “Investment Evaluation” is part of the curriculum of MBA. Every year, dozens of thousands of students get taught the subject. Yet none of them (or any of their professors) had anything to write that would meet Wikipedia’s criteria for publicationIs it possible that the reality in the state-of-the-art in Financial Analysis calculation methods is so problematic?

If you try to google for “Financial Analysis Software” or “Investment Evaluation Program” or anything along those lines, you will get flooded with result pages. However, on a closer look, you will see that they are about programs that calculate the monthly payments of Bank loans (most of them in connection with real estate situations), or ones that do analysis of statistical ratios, or ones that have something to do with the stock market, or statistical report generators.

In my personal searches (before the creation of C2BII), I was not able to find a single software application that attempted to answer the most obvious and most useful question: “Profit & Loss”. The reason for that is that an accurate and reliable method to calculate that result (one that can pass scrutiny and verification) had not existed before C2BII. The obvious limitation is that a method to calculate the result must preexist, and then comes the software application that implements that method. No method in existence, equals no software in existence. The calculation method of Net Present Value, which was previously considered as the state-of-the-art, is so inaccurate and problematic, that one cannot really base a decision on it. Accordingly, it is not fit as a “method basis” for software creation.

By now, I’m sure that you begin to realize that something is terribly wrong in the kingdom of Financial Analysis. This blog intends to point out those problems in detail, and then explain how easily they can be solved thru the new method of C2BII.

Stick around, because in the next series of articles, we are going to poke holes into the credibility of the “Net Present Value” method.

Posted in Financial Analysis, Financial Analysis Method, Problems of Net Present Value | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Financial Analysis: Yeah, but what is it really all about?

Let’s make clear from the beginning, what we are going to discuss, and what we are not going to.

First of all, this is the list of topics that will not be discussed in this blog:

  • Stock prices
  • Valuations of listed companies
  • Buy or hold or sell suggestions for stocks
  • Generally speaking, anything and everything that is about the stock market
  • All the things that were previously erroneously herded under the title of “Financial Analysis”

Now, here is the list of topics that will be covered in this blog:

  • Investment Plan Evaluation
  • Profitability calculation
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Calculation of “What if” scenarios
  • Budgeting
  • Cash Budgeting
  • Product price policy
  • Generally speaking, any forecasted scenario, where the bottom line question is how to calculate “Profit & Loss”

Most of you probably know that already there are thousands of blogs and forums about the topics in the “no fly” list. After the launch of C2BII, I tried to find ones about the topics in the second list, but I couldn’t find a single one. Even though my search was thorough enough for my satisfaction, for reasons of prudence (maybe it’s the Accountant in me that’s speaking), I will stop short of claiming that “CEO-on-Financial-Analysis.com” is the world’s first blog that’s specifically devoted to Investment Plan Evaluation, even though it probably is. If you know of any blog that’s specifically devoted to the topics of the second list, please drop me a line.  

Stick around, and we’ll discuss how problematic and inaccurate the state-of-the-art in calculation methods used to be.

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